Netease's YiChat is all the rage right now in China. There are multiple significant developments virtually every days.
My last post on this subject can be found here:
The development of YiChat and the cooperation between China Telecom and Netease are capturing a lot of attention in China right now.
Over the weekend, China's largest B2C company (or China's Amazon), 360Buy, requires all its employees to use YiChat in all its official operation. See the following:
The company has 30k plus employees, 40k plus partnering companies, and 100 million plus customers. This development will definitely deliver many users for YiChat.
But more importantly, there is a sense of gathering momentum.
In addition, since everybody is talking about this, it is the best form of advertisement. It spares both Netease and China Telecom of advertising spending.
A week ago, when this news first hit, I was more excited about how Netease can take advantage of China Telecom's customer base. But I didn't think much about the chance of YiChat actually over-thrown Tencent's WeChat.
A week ago, I thought YiChat will have 0% chance of defeating WeChat. But I thought it might have 20% chance of being a 2nd place player (taking maybe 20% of the market).
But now, there seem to be an urge in China for YiChat to take it to WeChat. China's David vs Goliath story. I am adjusting my expectation. I think it might have 20% of actually defeating WeChat. But the more realistic goal for YiChat is to be a significant 2nd place player. I give that 60% chance of success.
To be a significant 2nd place player is nothing to be sneered at. Just look at QIHU. By being a 2nd place player in Search in China has cause its stock to quadruple in the last 6 months.