TX2 4Q2008 Prediction

My previous article on TX2 can be found here:

http://chinese-net-gaming-stock.blogspot.com/2008/09/ntes-tx2-status-part-2-official-closed.html

Tx2 is a new game. It starts commercial operation on 6/6/2008. It also had a new expansion pact on 10/29/2008. Therefore, one shall expect strong growth in the next few quarters. If the game is a mega hit, one shall expect strong growth for the next few years.

The acronyms first -

ACU = Average Concurrent Users

PCU = Peak Concurrent Users

QoQ = Quarter over Quarter

YoY = Year over Year

Now let us see how TX2 does in 4Q2008.

The server counts for the XY2 can be found in the following table:

There are 3 months in a quarter. Each month has either 4 or 5 weeks. I only use 2 days in a week. I don't do server count every weekend. I only put in the number where I have a server count in both quarter. I also pick 3 days of holidays in this calculation.

The 31.2% QoQ increase in ACU is very nice. NTES doesn't give out statistics for this game. Therefore, I don't know the PCU record for this game. Note that NTES doesn't have a company guideline on which information to publish, it depends on the each game's chief designer.

But I best guess is TX2 already has PCU of a minimal of 100k. Considering this game is only half years old, I full expect this game will grow to a major game of a quarter of million players (at the minimal). In the best case, it is not out of question that it could eventually achieve the popularity of World of Warcraft.

TX2』s chief designer doesn't give out ACU estimates also. My estimate is an ACU = 40k for 4Q2008.

TX2 is a free-to-play game. Therefore, I am going to calculate its revenue for this quarter. Again, NTES doesn't provide any historical revenue data for TX2. I will have to use other free-to-play game as guideline.

I will use Sohu's TLBB as a guide. During the 3 quarter in operation, TLBB had achieved a PCU of 500k while generated 23 million in revenue. This quarter (4Q2008) is at the similar stage in operation, the third quarter in operation. TX2 is a 100k game in this quarter. Therefore, my estimate for revenue is 23 * (100k/500k) = 4.6 millions.

By the way, if case anybody is wondering why is Sohu's TLBB can achieve a PCU of 500k while TX2 can only achieve a PCU of 100k at roughly the same period of their respective game life, the discrepancy is largely because Sohu really marketing its game while NTES tends to pinch pennies and tries to save the marketing cost. As a result, TLBB PCU reached its plateau right away while TX2 keeps on explosive growing.