About this Blog

The purpose of this blog is for my personal use. It serves as my personal diary as I investigate Chinese internet/gaming companies for investment purpose. If you have any comments or disagreement, please give me feedbacks.

Tuesday, January 6, 2009

XYQ 4Q2008 Prediction

My last article on XYQ can be found here:


In this article, I am going to calculate the percent of growth for the game XYQ from 3Q 2008 to 4Q2008. I will be doing it using the server count.

The acronyms first -

ACU = Average Concurrent Users

PCU = Peak Concurrent Users

QoQ = Quarter over Quarter

YoY = Year over Year

Some people keeps on asking me why do I concentrate on the games from Ntes or Sohu, why don't I branch out to cover games made by Snda, Ga, or Pwrd? Well, the answer is games made by Ntes and Sohu are very open. One can easily track how many players are playing their games at any time by tracking their game servers.

It is very time consuming to track the servers, but it does give me some insightful information that most other people won't get. Unfortunately, it is very time consuming. Therefore, I can only track them only 1 or 2 times a week.

Now, let's do the 4Q2008 estimate for XYQ.

The server counts for the XYQ can be found in the following table:

There are 3 months in a quarter. Each month has either 4 or 5 weeks. I only use 2 days in a week. I don't do server count every weekend. I only put in the number where I have a server count in both quarter. I also pick 3 days of holidays in this calculation.

From the above table, I have a 4Q2008 ACU increase of 5.6% quarter over quarter (QoQ).

In terms of overall revenue, I predict 6% revenue growth from last quarter.

From the 3Q2008 earning conference, the XYQ's ACU is announced as 675k. Therefore, I predict a 4Q2008 ACU of 713k.

XYQ is showing amazingly strong performance considering that we are in the middle of global crisis.

Especially considering the last expansion pact is recently released on 10/7/2008, XYQ shall still be going strong for at least the next quarter.

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