1Q2009 Internet advertising survey results

One can find my last article on the survey of China's Internet advertising here:

http://chinese-net-gaming-stock.blogspot.com/2009/03/chinas-internet-advertising-market.html

All of China's internet companies are going to have 1Q2009 quarterly result conference soon. There are three surveys published in the last few days. I will provide quick updates on these three survey results.

First is a survey performed by China Institute of Social Study (I think they are part of China's Institute of Science). One can find the article here:

http://tech.163.com/09/0428/03/57V3UP15000915BF.html

It showed that there is a big decrease in 1^st quarter 2009 for China's Internet advertising market. There is a decrease of -25% quarter over quarter (QoQ) and -17.8% year over year (YoY).

The second survey is conducted by Analysys International. One can find the article here:

http://tech.163.com/09/0427/15/57TQQAD2000915BF.html

Again, there is a big decrease in 1Q2009, but not as drastic as the last one. One can find the plot here:

It showed that China's internet advertising market suffers a -16% QoQ in 1Q2009. The same quarter also has a +41% increase.

The final survey is conducted by iResearch. One can find the article here:

http://tech.163.com/09/0422/03/57FL77H700093BJN.html

One can find the plot of the data here:

It showed that China's internet advertising market suffers -25.3% QoQ and -13.8% YoY for 1Q2009.

One interesting number that can be find from the above article is that the survey predicted the 1Q2009 China's search market had an increase of +41 YoY.

That article was published on 4/22/2009. Today (4/27/2009) Baidu announced its 1Q earning and its YoY revenue growth is exactly +41%.

It could be just luck. But if one believes in that article and purchases Bidu in the last few days, he or she would probably make some money.

Finally, to summary all the data compiled by the three surveys, the 1Q2009 QoQ estimates are -25.3%, -16%, and -25%. The YoY estimates are -13.8%, +41%, and -17.8%.

Either way, we shall expect pretty bad revenue in 1Q2009.

From Yahoo.com, it seems the street is expecting bad quarter also. But there were some big run up recently. If the street has a higher whisper number for the 1Q number, it will probably be disappointed. But I have no insight to how the street thinks; I have no idea whether Wall Street had already accounted for the bad 1Q2009.