About this Blog

The purpose of this blog is for my personal use. It serves as my personal diary as I investigate Chinese internet/gaming companies for investment purpose. If you have any comments or disagreement, please give me feedbacks.

Wednesday, May 30, 2007

Sohu – TL – TL’s Peak Concurrent User estimate

This is the final part of 4 part series. The 3nd part is here:
http://chinese-net-gaming-stock.blogspot.com/2007/05/sohu-tl-reasons-i-think-tl-is-popular.html

Now we have all the data we can use to provide some estimate for TL’s PCUs. I will be doing this through two completely different approaches. The first approach is by comparing to its peer. The second approach is by extrapolate from its server counts.

Approach A. Estimates from peers.

The idea in this approach is by comparing with it peer’s PCU, we can get an estimate of TL’s PCU. In this case, peer means a MMORPG game that just started open beta.

We can’t compare it with an existing game that had been in operation for years because relationship between the number of downloads and the number of searches to PCU is different between new games and older games. For a new game, there will be more downloads simply because it is a new game.

In this case, NTCY’s SUN provides a reasonable base of comparison because SUN is a new game. From the data in the last two articles, we can formulate the following table:

________iResearch___Baidu____Xunlei Download___ Xunlei Search
TL______5711182____43758_____36688__________6373
SUN_____391959____26523_____9292___________1602
TL/SUN___146%_____165%_____395%___________398%

For this study, I will ignore the last two columns (Xunlei download and Xunlei search). There is no way TL has 4 times as many users as SUN.

Xunlei’s one day numbers seem to be skewed. A possible reason is that since these are one day numbers, they may be subject to wide fluctuations. (As a matter of fact, Xunlei’s one day numbers always seem to have problem with accuracies.)

Now, if we take the result from the iResearch (which is really Xunlei’s one week statistics) and Baidu column and average them out, we would have gotten a combined TL/SUN = 155%.

Since NCTY proclaim that SUN has a PCU of 400k, we can estimate the PCU for TL to be 1.55 * 400k = 620k.

Approach B. Estimate from the number of servers.

As of now, TL has 159 servers. Each server’s maximum capacity is 5200 players. Sohu had been adding servers like crazy. It means tremendous new users. But after more than one month, I believe it is able to support almost all users now. Therefore, I estimated that a small number of servers still have servers that are almost full (30) while the majority has a very good balance of users in them (90).

But since Sohu is adding servers so fast, it also means that some older servers may neve get the chance to get fill up. I picked an estimate of 39 servers that have numbers that are lower than expected, but not low enough to warrant server consolidation.

Thus, the calculation is as follows:

30 servers @ 4500 players per server
+ 90 servers @ 3000 players per server
+ 39 servers @ 2000 players per server
= 483,000 players.

Or PCU = 483k.

Clearly, this is a highly subjective estimate. By varying the numbers, you could get very different results.

Now, if we combined the two numbers (just average them),

We get a PCU = 552k

This is a truly amazing number from a game nobody saw it coming. Well, I predicted TL will be a successful game. But I was thinking about a mid-level game that can give 5M per quarter surprise to Sohu. But a PCU of 552k for open beta is indicating something completely different.

PCU like this for open beta is un-precedent. It is indicating a major blockbuster in the making.

In summary, in this series, I pointed out 1 possible inconsistency, I dispelled 2 myths and I gave 5 reasons for a strong TL. In the end, the evidence is just too strong in one direction. Hopefully, I answered the question why I think TL is on his way to be a blockbuster.

23 comments:

intelligentinvesting said...

Your analysis once again is outstanding and very convincing. It addressed most of my concerns surrounding the truth behind the proclaimed popularity of TL.

Below is my 2 cents.

I do have piece of info that you may find useful in your PCU estimate analysis.

I think inception-to-date(Beta Tests) cumulative count of game searchs on Baidu is perhaps more accurate indicator of the level of popularity among game players.

From 4/4/2007 to 5/29/2007(the period during which TL first had a unlimited final closed beta test and then had an open beta test):
TL had 2.31 million searches from Baidu

From 4/18/2007 to 5/29/2007(SUN started open beta on 4/18; I don't have any search figure for SUN prior to its open beta):
SUN had 2.09 million searches from Baidu.

Based on the above, according to Baidu, TL's lead over SUN is narrower, or about 13% more search than Baidu.

Calculation:
400K PCU claimed by SUN multiplied by 113% is 452K PCU for TL game.

Does my calculation sound reasonable? or is it too conservative. I think your approach B using server to calculate PCU is very interesting. Using the same factors, I would estimate as follows: Number of server X PCU per server X utilization rate: 166 X 5200 X 65% = 561K

Finally, using the average of the two approach, I get 502K PCU for TL. Of course, my numbers are just as subjective as yours because if I change my assumptions, I can get widely different numbers.

Are you also going to do another article on 2Q, 3Q, and 4Q 2007 revenue estimate for TL?

Look forward to reading more writings from you.

Anonymous said...

Thanks you for your detail study, Sohu will have share holder meeting on June 8, let our see what maneger team will provide to us, in the past several quarters, earning are so disappoint, hope TL can give wall street a big surprise

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Mike said...

How do you know how many servers do they have, and how can you check if the servers are full.

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