China’s 2008 Internet advertising market survey

My last article related to the advertising market in China can be found below:

http://chinese-net-gaming-stock.blogspot.com/2009/01/chinese-optimistic-about-2009.html

I don't know much about Analysys International. I had seen quite a few survey results from Analysys on various subjects on China』s Internet industry recently. I would like follow their surveys to see if their surveys are accurate.

The following is the survey result from Analysys International:

http://www.analysys.com.cn/web2007/ygfx_index.php/id_6175.html

One can find the revenue and year over year growth rate in the following plot:

From the above plot, the revenue and YoY growth rate for 2008 can be listed:

1Q2008: 2.11084 billion and 54.5% growth rate

2Q2008: 2.80750 and 73.5%

3Q2008: 3.343 and 72.4%

4Q2008: 3.543 and 67.3%

If their survey is correct, we shall be seeing an incredibly strong 4Q2008 advertising revenue for SINA, SOHU, NTES, FMCN and BIDU.

Note that we have Olympics for the 2Q and 3Q. The 4Q2008 survey results are almost on the same level as those Olympics quarters. Even assuming 4Q2008 is a normal quarter, it is an amazing survey result. Now, considering that 4Q2008 is when the global financial crisis occurs, this result is a little hard to believe.

We will see how this survey results stack up when China』s internet companies report their 4Q2008 results.