DCCI survey on Chinese search market

I has just written a survey article on China』s search market. That article is based on a survey conducted by Analysys International. It can be found here:

http://chinese-net-gaming-stock.blogspot.com/2009/01/chinas-search-market-survey-and-bidus.html

On 2/5/2009, DCCI published another survey on China』s search market. It can be found here:

http://it.sohu.com/20090205/n262065965.shtml

I will copy their survey plot below:

From the above plot, one can see the year over year (YoY) growth rate for 2008 is 86.2%. They also published their prediction for the next 3 years. I don't really care about their prediction.

But their survey result for 2008 might be of use. Since Bidu hasn't published their 4^th quarter 2008 revenue number yet. Their survey result might give us some insight about the 4^th quarter performance for Bidu.

If we compare that with Bidu's analyst survey on Yahoo finance site:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=BIDU

From Yahoo, the YoY revenue is estimated to be 98.8% based on 19 analysts. The analysts are predicting full year revenue much better than the survey result from DCCI.

DCCI's results are based on the whole search industry in China. So unless Bidu were grabbing significant market shares from other search companies, DCCI's results seem to suggest Bidu's full year revenue won't be as good as what the Wall Street were expecting.

Now, we are in an impasse. The survey results conducted by Analysys International suggest Bidu's 4Q revenue will blow away Wall Street estimates.

On the other hand, survey results published by DCCI suggest Bidu's 2008 revenue will fall short of Wall Street estimates.

We will have to wait until after Bidu's 4^th quarter earning conference to find out which survey is more correct.